Burnley is going through a tough post-Covid19 period when Manchester City ran over them and were losing 5-0 already after just over an hour of play.

On Thursday, Watford will visit Burnley and the home team will of course hope to bounce back after the humiliating loss to Manchester City. Here is our Burnley – Watford tip.

Of course, there is nothing to be ashamed of losing away to Manchester City. Especially not for teams like Burnley that are in the middle of the table. But… There always comes a “but”… Burnley were losing 5-0 already after an hour of play and in the whole match they’ve managed only one shot against City’s goal, while their opponents had 26!

Burnley also has a tricky position now. They have no concrete targets to chase. They’re not fighting for their survival, neither for a ticket to a European competition. Burnley has a 12-point margin from the relegation line ahead of this matchday and is ten points behind Manchester United for the last European ticket spot with a match in hand. 

Although this could seem something they could chase, note that there are six teams between Burnley and United.

Missing their two best goal scorers

Burnley also will miss some key players which makes this close match even more difficult for them. Barnes and Wood have scored a total of 17 of the team’s goals 34 Premier League goals this season! This duo has 50% of Burnley’s goals this season.

Watford, in their reboot, managed to pinch a vital point against third Leicester, which means they have just one point margin to the relegation places. In other words, they have as much to play for and got plenty of energy from the point earned against Leicester. And note, that although they equalized in extra time, Watford deserved the point, since they were a bit better than Leicester and Ismaila Sarr was a constant threat on the right against the Foxes usually very tight defense. 

When analyzing bookmakers’ odds, we were always check the under 2.5 goals bet, but the odds of 1.70 or so, doesn’t seem in line with our rating. On the contrary you can find a nice 2.50 on a Watford win, which is about 7% higher than our own rating.

Burnley – Watford tip

Bet of the day

  • Burnley – Watford: 2

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