Barcelona is fighting to remain Spanish champion, but since drawing against Celta is left behind Real Madrid. Can Barca recover against mighty Atletico Madrid?
Can Atletico win Barcelona in the league for the first time since 2006? The 33rd matchday in Primera Division begins with a derby between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. The Catalans have lost the connection to leaders Real Madrid by a draw against Celta. Lionel Messi’s team has won the last 8 home games and has not lost in the last 6 games generally. However, the guests come to Barcelona with great confidence, having won the last 4 games and remaining without a defeat in the last 10 games. Here is our Barcelona – Atletico Madrid tip for the bet of the day.
Under Simeone, the Rojiblancos couldn’t beat FC Barcelona in the league, but the last clash – in the semi-final of the Supercopa – went to Atletico. Barca is the favorite in this game but who can underestimate the heart of Simeone’s Atletico?
Barca under pressure
FC Barcelona lost contact with the front-runner just before the top game due to an unexpected slip in Vigo. The team of coach Quique Setién in the last 6 games in the Primera Division has 4 wins and 2 draws without a defeat. This season, the Catalans have 21 wins in 32 championship games, 6 draws and 5 losses, putting the club in second place. Big rival Real Madrid are 2 points ahead.
In the home game against Atletico, the host is the clear favorite at betting odds around 1.80. Barca lost their first home game against the Rojiblancos in January for the Spanish Cup after 14 years with 10 wins and 3 draws. In the last 10 H2H Barcelona got 5 successes with 4 draws and only 1 loss.
Barcelona have not lost in their last 28 home games in the Primera Division. This season, the Blaugrana have 15 successes and 1 draw in their own stadium, making them the best home team in the league. The last 8 home games were won. In the most recent 4 home games, the Setien team did not concede a goal. The best offensive team in the league produces 3.0 goals per home appearance with just 0.75 goals conceded. More than half of the FCB home games score more than 3.5 goals, but the last 3 home games have seen fewer than 2.5 goals. Barca can score 56% at home in both halves, and also 56% score goals for both teams.
Can Atletico remain unbeaten?
Atletico Madrid is in good condition trying to finish 3rd in LaLiga. Diego Simeone’s team won the last 4 league games: 5-0 at Osasuna, 1-0 at home against Valladolid, 1-0 at Levante and 2-1 against Alaves. The Rojiblancos in the last 10 league games have 6 wins and 4 draws without defeat. The distance to the top of the league is 13 points and to the second place 11. But they have a 4 points lead from 4th Sevilla.
Atletico is the outsider at odds of 4.50, the double chance X / 2 brings odds of just under 2.00. In 6 of the last 10 H2H and in the most recent 3 matches in Barcelona, the two teams stayed under 2.5 goals, so you can risk an under bet. The Rojiblancos did not score in the recent two league appearances at Camp Nou. Atletico has won the recent two La Liga away games and has been without a defeat in the last 5 guest appearances with 2 wins and 3 draws. The last defeat and the last away defeat was in the city derby at Real Madrid on match day 22 in February. From 16 away games this season, the Madrilenians won 5 wins and 8 draws with only 3 losses. This puts them in third place in the away table.
Simeone’s team have scored in the last 10 league games and in the last 5 away games. Atletico is marking an average of 1.13 goals per away appearance with just 0.81 goals conceded. So they stay in 81% of the away games under 2.5 goals in total. The best defensive team in the league remains 38% abroad without conceding a goal. Thus wins every fourth away game to zero. In 56% of the away games not both teams manage to score.
Stats for the Barcelona – Atletico Madrid tip
- Barcelona’s Lionel Messi has an impressive 25 goals from 27 Primera Division appearances against Atlético. He has scored in eight of his last 11 Primera Division H2H starts.
- The last four H2Hs produced a 0-0 half-time result.
- Barcelona have collected the most cards in five of their last six Primera Division home matches.
- All but one of Atlético’s last seven championship fixtures have seen at least five total cards awarded.
- Barcelona enjoy an incredible unbeaten run of 19 La Liga Primera Division matches against Atletico Madrid (W14, D5). Barca has a record of half-time lead in eight of the 14 victories, as well as a clean sheet in six.
- Four straight Primera Division wins ‘to nil’ at home prior to this fixture is a season-best, with Barcelona’s most recent victory over Athletic Bilbao the sixth home victory this season to be accompanied by a clean sheet, and just the fourth home win in which they did not lead at haf-time.
Barcelona – Atletico Madrid tip
We are again assuming fewer goals this time, although it may not be possible for both teams to score goals. Quite good odds can be taken with the under 2.5 goals bet. Due to H2H, we see the hosts slightly at an advantage. This may well be that Barca win the home game against Atletico to zero. However, since the overall win seems somewhat too risky to us. So, we remain on the safe side with the number of goals. Our betting tip prediction: under 2.5 goals in this match.
Bet of the day
- Barcelona – Atletico Madrid: Under 2.5 goals
- Barcelona – Atletico Madrid: 1
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