Valencia – Athletic Bilbao tip for the Primera Division bet of the day. A battle to stay alive in the chase for a European competition ticket.

FC Valencia actually wanted to qualify for the UEFA Champions League three times in a row. However, this effort is difficult, because they are in 8th place with only 6 games remaining 11 points away from the 4th place (Sevilla). Bilbao is only one place behind (9th) and hopes to still qualify for international competitions. Here is our Valencia – Athletic Bilbao tip for the Primera Division bet of the day.

We therefore expect a very tight and exciting game. Valencia FC had the clear goal to get into the top 4 of the table before the season. However, this scenario will probably not happen, because with 46 points on the account they already lack 11 on a Champions League place (Sevilla has one game more). The Europa League, on the other hand, is within reach, as Real Sociedad (7th) is only one point away. The goal difference should definitely be improved in the last turn of La Liga because with 41-46 goals the outcome is negative. In particular Valencia’s defence is causing major problems and is responsible for 10 losses this season. The other 22 games ended with 12 wins and 10 draws.

Strong defence

One point that could benefit them in this game is the good home record. After 16 home games they haven’t suffered a single defeat: 9 wins and 7 draws are the balance at home. That is why they are 4th in the home table with a goal difference of 26-13 goals. Since their defence seems to be strong at home, their games end up only 31% with more than 2.5 goals. Moreover, 6 times they managed to keep the “clean sheet”. However, their current form is difficult to assess because Valencia has only won one out of 5 games since the restart. 3 times they didn’t manage to score.

Bilbao’s disadvantage

Bilbao would like to finally reach an international place this year, since they last managed to do so was back in 2017. With the current 9th place, they also have a good chance of achieving it, because the gap is only 2 points behind. A win against Valencia could give them the boost to 7th place. It would be the 12th success of the season overall, because they currently have a balanced record of 11 wins, 12 draws and 9 losses. With a goal difference of 36-28 goals they have one of the best defences in the league. Only Real Madrid and Atletico conceded fewer goals than Bilbao in La Liga. However, 19 of these 28 goals were caught away, which is a disadvantage in this game.

Away games with fewer goals

In general, the away balance is a problem, because they have won only 2 out of 16 away games. In addition to the 6 defeats, a total of 8 games ended in a draw. Despite the many goals conceded, Bilbao’s away games usually end with fewer goals. Only 38% of their previous games have ended with more than 2.5 goals. Even the last away game against FC Barcelona ended with a narrow 1-0 defeat. Otherwise, the shape of Bilbao is quite impressive, because with 14 points in the last 8 games they are in 5th place in the form table. Since resuming, Bilbao has lost only one in 5 games.

Stats for the Valencia- Athletic Bilbao tip

  • Valencia have averaged under 5.0 corners (4.63) per home league game so far this season.
  • Athletic Bilbao are the form team heading into this clash, unbeaten in five of their last six league games (W3, D2, L1).
  • Valencia averaged a joint league-low 2.0 yellow cards per home game.
  • Four (80%) of Bilbao coach, Gaizka Garitano’s five H2Hs with Valencia have yielded under 2.5 total goals.
  • Rodrigo has scored in both of Valencia’s home games played since the restart. He additionally bagged the opener in his last home H2H.
  • Valencia aim to extend their 2019/20 unbeaten home league record (W9, D7). They are firm favourites, despite winning just three of eight games in their figurative ‘mini-league’ between 5th and 10th (W3, D2, L3), and only two sides have recorded a higher percentage of their home La Liga (LL) games won ‘to nil’ than Valencia

Valencia- Athletic Bilbao tip

Valencia FC are unbeaten at home this season and have won 9 out of 16 games. However, Bilbao is anything but an easy opponent with ten away games without losing out of 16 in the season. However, we think Valencia will remain strong at home and would recommend a double chance bet 1 / X. In addition, the analysis showed us that we shouldn’t expect too many goals. We are therefore betting for fewer than 2.5 goals.

Bet of the day

  • Valencia- Athletic Bilbao: Under 2.5 goals
  • Valencia- Athletic Bilbao: 1/X double chance

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