The Bundesliga play-out matches had always a clear favourite: the teams from the 1st division and this is the case in the Werder Bremen – Heidenheim pair. Here is our tip.
Relegation games have been played in the German professional football since the 2008/2009 season after the regular season. Since Werder Bremen ended up in 16th place in Bundesliga 1 and Heidenheim finished 3rd in Bundesliga 2, both clubs are meeting for the relegation clash. In the past, clubs coming from Bundesliga 1 mostly won the relegation play-off tie. This has been the case for 8 times since 2009. The second division team only won three times. Here is our Werder Bremen – Heidenheim tip:
In the first leg of the final that will be played on Thursday, July 2nd, Werder Bremen wants to take on the role of favorites and create a good starting position for the second leg away. In 5 out of 11 relegation first legs, the Bundesliga 1 team emerged victorious. The Werderans want to expand these statistics.
Good starting position for Werder?
Werder Bremen played a catastrophic season and was very close to straight relegation. However, since the team of coach Florian Kohfeldt recorded a 6-1 win at home on the last matchday at home against FC Köln, and in the same time Fortuna Düsseldorf lost against Union Berlin, Werder was able to be temporarily saved from relegation by going into a final clash. There Werder meets FC Heidenheim, against whom the “SVW” had to compete in the DFB Cup at the beginning of the season.
At that time, the Bundesliga 1 club won 4-1. However, a lot has changed since then. SV Werder Bremen played one of the worst seasons in club history and could only win 8 of 34 games. With conceding 69 goals, Werder also has one of the most vulnerable defenses in the entire league. On average, they concede 2 goals per game. Although, after the restart, SV Werder Bremen experienced an upswing.
The great victory against FC Köln and the 6 goals scored gave the team of coach Florian Kohfeldt self-confidence. However, this success on the last day was only the second home win of the season. Accordingly, SV Werder Bremen is only 17th in the home table. 12 of 17 games in the Weser Stadium have been lost. Due to the many goals conceded, games from Werder Bremen were mostly scoring this season.
In 23 of 34 league games, at least 3 goals were scored. It was rarely the case that goalkeeper Jiri Pavlenka kept a “clean sheet”. The “Werderaner” did not concede a goal in only 4 games. Due to the great success last weekend, Florian Kohfeldt could enter the game with the almost identical starting eleven on Thursday. Only central defender Kevin Vogt is not available for the first leg due to a yellow card suspension.
Can FC Heidenheim cause the sensation?
Surprisingly, FC Heidenheim made it to reach the relegation play-offs and has a chance to participate in the highest German league. Since Hamburger SV lost their home game against SV Sandhausen 1-5, Heidenheim’s 0-3 loss to Arminia Bielefeld had no effect. Nevertheless, the performance against the champions of the 2nd Bundesliga was terrifyingly weak.
The team of coach Frank Schmidt did not seem to be able to deal with the pressure and the great opportunity and hardly scored any chances. In order to survive against SV Werder Bremen in the relegation game, the club from Baden-Württemberg needs a significant increase in performance. In the 2nd Bundesliga Heidenheim had a total record of 15 wins, 10 draws and 9 losses this season. The performance after the restart was mixed with only 4 out of 9 games to be won.
Heidenheim’s defensive line
The showpiece of Heidenheim is their defensive line. With just 36 goals conceded, the team of coach Frank Schmidt had the second best defence in the league after Arminia Bielefeld. However, the games for the second round against the two promoted Bielefeld and Stuttgart were lost 3-0. In it’s own stadium, Heidenheim was much stronger this season than on foreign territory. While the club from Baden-Württemberg won 11 out of 17 games at home, the team also won only 4 away games. Away from home, FC Heidenheim also acted extremely harmlessly. In 17 games scored only 13 times. Only one goal has been scored in the last 4 away games. Frank Schmidt can fall back on his strongest team on Thursday. Almost all players in the squad are fit and ready for action.
Stats for the Werder Bremen – Heidenheim tip
- A Bundesliga 2 challenger has not won their away leg of a relegation play-off tie since 2011/12 (D4, L3).
- Both teams have scored in six of the last eight relegation playoff legs hosted by the Bundesliga 1 team.
- Five of Bremen’s last seven Bundesliga 1 home fixtures saw four or fewer total cards awarded (average 3.29 per game).
- Milot Rashica opened the scoring for Bremen on five occasions in their Bundesliga 1 campaign as well as in their cup defeat of Heidenheim.
- Stefan Schimmer was Heidenheim’s only multiple goal scorer in their Bundesliga 2 travelling campaign, with goals in three of his last six Bundesliga 2 starts at all venues.
Werder Bremen – Heidenheim tip
Werder Bremen is in the clear favorite role in the relegation play-off first leg on Thursday. The squad of “Werderaner” has a higher quality than FC Heidenheim. In addition, the momentum is on their side. While the SVW landed a 6-1 win last weekend, the guests from Baden-Württemberg lost the game at Arminia Bielefeld 0-3. SV Werder Bremen only won 2 games in the Weserstadion this season, but Heidenheim was significantly weaker in Bundesliga 2 away than in their own stadium and could only celebrate 4 away wins.
Since the Bundesliga teams are also ahead of the second division teams in the general relegation play-offs statistics and were able to win the relegation 8 times out of 11, we prefer the Bremen team to win at home. Although FC Heidenheim scored few goals away this season, we can imagine a Heidenheim goal . An away goal would be enormously important for the second leg, so that Frank Schmidt will not only rely on their strong defence.
Bet of the day
- Werder Bremen – Heidenheim: 1
- Werder Bremen – Heidenheim: Both teams to score
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