The German Bundesliga is going into its last day before the summer break. The champions are once again Bayern Munich while VfL Wolfsburg got also a ticket for next year’s European competitions. However, the “Wolves” still fight for the better ticket to Europe, the one from the 6th place. Now they are currently tied with the table’s 7th – Hoffenheim. Here is our Wolfsburg – Bayern tip.

Last season, Wolfsburg also ended up in 6th place on the table and only had 3 more points as the team this year. They are quite happy with this result, as they once again qualified for international business. Whether it will be the fixed participation or the qualification may decide the last game against Bayern Munich. At the moment they qualify for 6th place, but TSG Hoffenheim is tied for 7th place.

Wolfsburg’s record is impressive with a total of 13 wins, 10 draws and 10 losses. With 48 goals, their offense was not its maing strength, but with only 42 goals conceded, they have the 5th best defense in the Bundesliga. In at least 8 games they managed to keep a clean sheet. In addition, they only conceded more than 2 goals per game 4 times this season.

In the home games, however, the “wolves” have a much harder time, which is why they are only in 14th place in the home table. Only 4 of 16 games were won at home and 5 games were lost along with a total of 7 draws. No other team played a draw at home more than VfL Wolfsburg. The goal difference is balanced by 19:19 goals. The “wolves” have not won for four home games, two of which ended in a draw. In the past 3 home games, they also always conceded 2 goals. On the last day of the match, they celebrated a convincing 1-4 away win at FC Schalke 04. However, it was also the 3rd game in a row in which you could not keep the zero.

How seriously does Bayern Munich take this game?

Bayern crowned German champions for the 8th time in a row. They are 10 points ahead of Borussia Dortmund. Overall, Bayern have won 25 of their 33 games so far. The remaining 8 games each ended in 4 draws and defeats. With 96 goals they are by far the best offensive team in the league and with only 32 conceded goals they are also the best defensive team.

On average, this results in 2.91 goals per game and only 0.97 goals conceded. Due to the strong offence, more than 2.5 goals were scored in 79% of all games. Away it is still 75% of all games that end with more than 2.5 goals. They score 2.69 goals on average per game. This enabled them to take 12 away wins and another 2 games ended in a draw. The two away defeats were collected against Frankfurt and Gladbach. However, these are already a bit behind, which shows the fact that Bayern could win all of their last 9 away games.

Five times they managed to remain the clean sheet and in 6 of these 9 games they scored at least 3 goals per game. Overall, they have recently celebrated 12 wins in a row and Bayern have been unbeaten since 19 Bundesliga games. However, they always conceded at least one goal in 3 of the last 4 games. In the last 4 games against Wolfsburg, however, they conceded only 2 goals and won all games. Overall, they have been unbeaten against the “wolves” for 11 games and 10 of them were wins. They also managed to score at least 2 goals per game 10 times.

Stats for the Wolfsburg – Bayern tip

  • Bayern have conceded a per-game average of just 0.33 first-half goals across their last six away league wins to see both teams score.
  • Five (62.5%) of Bayern’s last eight away league goals have arrived between the 40th minute and half-time.
  • Wolfsburg have lost their last four Bundesliga home H2Hs vs Bayern, conceding exactly two second-half goals on three occasions.
  • Bayern Munich’s run of Bundesliga away wins now stands at nine, across which they have averaged 3.11 goals per-match, with the first half producing 76.19% of their last 21 goals in that run.

Wolfsburg – Bayern tip

If FC Bayern Munich was still chasing the title, we would definitely suggest to win (2). However, since we are not sure whether Bayern will compete with the best team, we advise against a win bet. We believe that there won’t be too many goals scored in this game. Wolfsburg will not be able to score many goals as the season so far shows and Bayern will not necessarily go for a win. We would therefore prefer an over/under bet on under 3.5 goals. Despite this assumption, we trust both teams to score a goal. It would be the right betting market for this.

Bet of the day

  • VfL Wolfsburg – FC Bayern: Under 3.5 goals
  • VfL Wolfsburg – FC Bayern: Both teams to score

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